WE ARE NOT IN THE SAME BOAT: Covid19

Author Unknown …

I heard that we are in the same boat. But it’s not like that. We are in the same storm, but not in the same boat. Your ship can be shipwrecked and mine might not be. Or vice versa. For some, quarantine is optimal: moment of reflection, of re-connection. Easy, in flip flops, with a whiskey or tea.

For others, this is a desperate crisis. For others it is facing loneliness. For some, a peace, rest time, vacation.

Yet for others, Torture: How am I going to pay my bills?
Some were concerned about a brand of chocolate for Easter (this year there were no rich chocolates).

Others were concerned about the bread for the weekend, or if the noodles would last for a few more days.
Some were in their “home office” .

Others are looking through trash to survive.
Some want to go back to work because they are running out of money.

Others want to kill those who break the quarantine.
Some need to break the quarantine to stand in line at the banks. Others to escape. Others criticize the government for the lines.

Some have experienced the near death of the virus, some have already lost someone from it, some are not sure their loved ones are going to make it, and some don’t even believe this is a big deal. Some of us who are well now may end up experiencing it, and some believe they are infallible and will be blown away if or when this hits someone they know.

Some have faith in God and expect miracles during this 2020.
Others say the worse is yet to come.

So, friends, we are not in the same boat. We are going through a time when our perceptions and needs are completely different.
And each one will emerge, in his own way, from that storm.

Some with a tan from their pool. Others with scars on the soul (for invisible reasons). It is very important to see beyond what is seen at first glance. Not just looking, more than looking, seeing.

See beyond the political party, beyond religion, beyond the nose on your face.
Do not underestimate the pain of others if you do not feel it.

Do not judge the good life of the other, do not condemn the bad life of the other. Don’t be a judge. Let us not judge the one who lacks, as well as the one who exceeds him.

We are on different ships looking to survive. Let everyone navigate their route with respect, empathy and responsibility.

Be safe and Help others to be safe…LIFE is Important.

Covid19 Exponential Math

Author Unknown

The real pandemic starts the day lockdown ends. The coronavirus is a crisis of math. The coronavirus is an easy problem to solve…if we understood exponentials.

Unfortunately, the human mind is incapable of grasping exponentials. We cannot intuitively perceive how a small number can grow so large in such a small amount of time.
An Indian parable is relevant at this point.

A king wanted to reward the inventor of chess and asked him to name his prize. “I want you to fill up the entire chess board with wheat. One grain of wheat on the first square, 2 grains on the next square, double that on the next square for 4 grains, 8, 16, 32 and thus fill up the entire chess board,“ said the inventor.
At first, the king was offended, and thought his paltry request was a joke, but the inventor of chess was serious. So, the king told his servants to fill up the chess board.

The servants came back and told the king that it couldn’t be done. They had used up the entire wheat stock of the kingdom. There was no more left to continue to fill the chess board. Just the last square alone on the board would require 9 trillion grains of wheat.
Just like the king in this story, every world leader has been fooled by a small number of coronavirus cases and the power of exponential growth.
We are accusing China for hiding the exact number of cases. But the important aspect is that 80,000 cases in two months should have been enough for us to wake up to the scary reality of this exponential growth. Despite seeing the data, the world leaders did nothing.

Some basic math around the virus:

Starting from the first locally transmitted case in the US on February 26, 15 cases have grown to ~460,000 cases (April 9th) in only 6 weeks, in spite of lockdown measures being taken all over the country. On April 8, there were 31,000 new cases. Yesterday, there were 34,000 more new cases. And today, there will be even more.
There is no current indicator that the virus’s exponential growth will stop. Our current lockdown measures have slowed the rate of this exponential growth. But due to the nature of exponents, decreasing the rate of exponential growth still leaves you growing exponentially, and only marginally slower.
Exponential growth can only stop if there are no more people left for the virus to infect in its environment.

There is a ~1% mortality rate for the virus in the best circumstances. Assuming our health care system can handle the influx of new cases (flatten the curve), if every US citizen got coronavirus, ~3 million people would die. Stopping exponential growth without infecting the full population requires cutting off the supply of healthy individuals that can be infected.

The incubation period of the virus is ~14 days. If everyone is in complete isolation for 4–6 weeks, the virus will disappear. Complete isolation means no going out for any reason at all. No walks, no groceries, no “essential” businesses. This has been proven successful in China.
This is effective because those within a household where no one is infected will have no means of contracting the virus without outside contact. For an individual who may have the virus, they will only be able to pass it to those quarantined with them, with 4–6 weeks as enough time for the virus to pass through the whole household. Those who end up at the hospital would only return to their homes once they are cleared of the virus.

We have two choices:
Everyone in the world gets the virus, so that it can no longer spread. The body count would be horrific.
The whole world synchronously goes into a complete lockdown for 4–6 weeks. The effects on the global economy would be horrific.

Every nation is eagerly awaiting to lift its lockdown as soon as there are fewer cases. But when 15 cases become 460,000 in 6 weeks, how is it ok to lift a lockdown when we are down to, say, “only 100 new cases” in a given day? Once again, our human mind is incapable of thinking in exponentials. We will not have learned from history — a history that occurred just two months ago. The real pandemic will start the day we start lifting the lockdown.

Every country or state has announced a date at which lockdown will be lifted. They should instead declare that they will lift the lockdown the day the number of new cases has been zero for the past two weeks. Period.

We are setting ourselves up for a cycle of partial lockdown for weeks, followed by a lift, then a lock down again when the spread picks up — over and over again, for the better part of the year, at best. In the process, we will lose millions of lives, as well as our economies. If we take a hit of some percentage loss in the world GDP by locking down the entire world synchronously, we could save millions of lives. Or we do nothing and millions get killed with a loss in GDP anyway.

The reality is that we will lose lives as well as the economy — just because we didn’t bother to understand the math.

We have a choice to make:

Do we want to throw money at the problem?

OR

Do we want to throw bodies at the problem?

PERIOD!!!!

The Mouse lives still

You probably have heard or read this story before. I just saw it again recently & it suddenly had a whole new meaning under the present circumstances.

Bear with me a while & read it fully yet again, so you can appreciate my cute Covid19 ending.

Enjoy!!

“A mouse looked through a crack in the wall to see the farmer & his wife open a package. He was devastated to discover it was a mousetrap. Retreating to the farmyard, the mouse proclaimed the warning: “There is a mousetrap in the house! There is a mousetrap in the house!”

“”The chicken clucked, scratched & said, “Mr. Mouse, I can tell this is of grave concern to you, but it is of no consequence to me. I cannot be bothered.”

“The mouse turned to the goat and told him, “There is a mousetrap in the house! There is a mousetrap in the house!” The goat sympathized, but said, “I am sorry Mr. Mouse, there is nothing I can do about it but pray. Be assured you are in my prayers.”

“The mouse turned to the cow & said “There is a mousetrap in the house! There is a mousetrap in the house!” The cow said, “Wow, Mr. Mouse. I’m sorry for you, but it’s none of my concern.” So, the mouse returned to the house dejectedly to face the farmer’s mousetrap alone.

“That same night a sound was heard throughout the house – like the sound of a mousetrap catching its prey. The farmer’s wife rushed to see what was caught. In the darkness, she did not see it was a venomous snake whose tail the trap had caught.

“The snake bit the farmer’s wife. The farmer rushed her to the hospital & she returned home with a fever. Everyone knows you aid a fever with fresh chicken soup, so the farmer took his knife to the farm house for the soup’s main ingredient.

“But his wife’s sickness continued, so friends & neighbours came to sit with her around the clock. To feed them, the farmer butchered the goat.

“Finally, the farmer’s wife died.
So many people came for her funeral & the farmer had the cow slaughtered to provide enough meat for all of them.

“The mouse looked upon it all from his crack in the wall with great sadness.”

The morale of the story;

Next time you hear someone is facing a problem and think it doesn’t concern you, remember when one of us is threatened, we are all at risk.

The characters;

Mouse: Common Citizen

Crack in the wall: Ghetto

Farmer: China

Package: Wuhan

Darkness: Covidiots

Snake: Police

Farmer’s wife: Expatriates

Chicken: Hospitals

Goat: Chloroquine

Cow: Celebrities

Knife: Government

Neighbors: Social Media

Friends: Press

Chicken soup: Lemon

Funeral: Anarchy

Farm house: Quarantine

Mouse trap: Covid19

IN CONCLUSION

What’s remarkable about this story is how anyone can make their own completely different list of appropriate characters.

My wife, daughter in-law & niece had their own very scary list…

Trust women! 🤦‍♂️

Check out their own choice of characters;

Mouse: Life

Crack in the wall: Hospital

Farmer: Virus

Package: Covid19

Darkness: Conspiracy theories

Snake: Unprepared Authorities

Farmer’s wife: Wuhan

Chicken: Asia

Goat: Europe & America

Cow: Africa

Knife: Death

Neighbors: Social Media

Friends: Sports

Chicken soup: Chloroquine

Funeral: New world order

Farm house: Social Gatherings

Mouse trap: lockdown

😂😂😂😂
There is hidden mockery in their “Friends – for Sports” choice, it’s directed at me & my son.

They actually enjoy that there is no football now & like the troubled are always asked “Where are your friends now?” They mean actually mean, “Where is your sports now?”

Their ‘Cow – Africa’ scare the shit out of me.

We’ve had our serious laugh, now it’s your turn to make others laugh, ponder & wonder.

This pandemic is everybody’s battle!

Let’s work together and defeat this virus.

#StayHome
#StaySafe.

Winter is Here!

So suddenly:

New York ‘the city that never sleeps’ is now asleep, all quiet.

Paris the ‘center of romance’ lives in echos.

Rome ‘the eternal city’ is deserted.

Disney is out of magic.

London is caged in silence, the Queen speaks to her people from a hidden room.

Mecca is empty! Nobody to ‘stone the devil’.

The Chinese wall is no longer a fortress.

The G8 nations are speechless.

The developed world suddenly on its knees.

Churches, mosques, great parks, monuments, stadiums are filled with unfilled spaces.

The busiest places at present were hitherto the most dreaded: hospitals and cemeteries.

The famous football leagues, the fashion shows, exotic weddings, festivals all lost to memory.

Celebrities have run out of celebrations. Our titles, status and privileged positions are stale.

With all our boastful ‘citizenships’ we cannot step out of our houses. With all our savings in gold and cash, we can only buy food to eat and toilet papers to take care of the waste.

We usually went to watch animals in cages, now animals roam our empty streets, watching us in our ‘cages’.

With our expensive clothes and shoes, our house clothes and pyjamas are the latest fashion.

AND despite all these ‘oddities’…the world still goes on; the sun still shines; the birds still sing.

When this long night finally gets over and a new day sets in, let us not forget the lesson of the long night – that the only essential is LIFE, the rest are but dispensable prefixes and suffixes –

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